EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0700 ahead of US data
EUR/USD struggles to build on Wednesday's gains and fluctuates in a tight channel near 1.0700 on Thursday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the Fed-inspired decline as market focus shifts to mid-tier US data releases.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 50 and EUR/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles above the 100, 50 and 20-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting the bullish tilt in the short-term outlook.
On the upside, key resistance area seems to have formed at 1.0750 - 1.0760 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend, 200-period SMA). If EUR/USD stabilizes above that region, 1.0790 - 1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, static level) could be seen as next bullish target.
1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA, 50-period SMA) aligns as immediate support before 1.0650 (static level) and 1.0600 (static level).
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum in the late American session on Wednesday and closed the day in positive territory. The pair holds steady above 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday, while the technical outlook points to a bullish tilt.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% following the April 30 - May 1 policy meeting, as widely expected. In its policy statement, the Fed announced they will slow the decline of the balance sheet by cutting the Treasury redemption cap to $25 billion per month from $60 billion starting June 1.
When asked about the possibility of policy tightening in the face of persistent inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it was unlikely that the next interest rate move would be a hike. Powell refrained from providing any clues regarding the timing of the policy pivot but said that it was likely that it will take longer than previously anticipated to gain the greater confidence in inflation moving toward the 2% target to lower the policy rate.
The US Dollar (USD) suffered large losses as the Fed event turned out to be not as hawkish as feared, with the USD Index falling over 0.6% on the day. Early Thursday, the USD Index holds steady above 105.50 and limits EUR/USD's upside.
Later in the day, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. The US economic docket will also feature the Unit Labor Costs data for the first quarter, which is expected to rise 3.2% following the 0.4% increase recorded in the previous quarter. A stronger-than-forecast print could help the USD erase some of its post-Fed losses, while a soft print could further weigh on the currency. Nevertheless, the market reaction could remain short-lived, with investors awaiting Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Federal Reserve and Nonfarm Payrolls spell action next week Premium
The EUR/USD pair temporarily reconquered the 1.0700 threshold this week, settling at around that round level. The US Dollar lost its appeal following discouraging US macroeconomic data indicating tepid growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0700 ahead of US data
EUR/USD struggles to build on Wednesday's gains and fluctuates in a tight channel near 1.0700 on Thursday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the Fed-inspired decline as market focus shifts to mid-tier US data releases.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2500 following Wednesday's rebound
GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase slightly above 1.2500 on Thursday after closing in the green on Wednesday. A mixed market mood caps the GBP/USD upside ahead of Unit Labor Costs and Jobless Claims data from the US.
Japanese Yen trims some intraday losses as BoJ data supports Japan's intervention
The Japanese Yen rallied on Wednesday amid speculations of another intervention by authorities. The momentum, however, runs out of steam on the back of the divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks. Traders now look to the second-tier US data for some impetus ahead of the NFP report on Friday.
Gold price pulls back as market sentiment improves
The Gold price is trading in the $2,310s on Thursday after retracing about three-tenths of a percent on reduced safe-haven demand. Market sentiment is overall positive as Asian stocks on balance closed higher and Oil prices hover at seven-week lows.
WTI drops to seven-week lows below $80.00 on surprise build crude inventories
WTI prices loses momentum near seven-week lows of $79.20 on Thursday. A surprise build in US crude stocks weighs on black gold prices. WTI prices edge lower amid signs of easing Middle East geopolitical tensions. The US employment reports on Friday will be closely watched.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.