Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold needs to reclaim $2,340 for a sustained recovery
Gold price is consolidating Wednesday’s rebound in Asian trading on Thursday, as buyers await more employment and wage inflation data from the United States for fresh trading impetus. Traders also digest the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's words delivered late Wednesday.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
Gold price found buyers near $2,280 and recaptured the $2,300 level on a daily closing basis, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flipped back into the bullish territory, currently sitting above 53.50.
However, Gold price faces stiff resistance at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,340. A sustained move above that level will revive the bullish interests, calling for a test of the $2,370 round level.
The next topside target is seen at the April 22 high of $2,392.
Alternatively, the immediate support is seen at the $2,300 threshold, below which the multi-month low of $2,282 will come into play.
Failure to defend the latter will trigger a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $2,229.
Fundamental Overview
Gold price staged an impressive comeback from four-week lows of $2,282 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields got sold off into Fed Chair Powell’s dovish signals on the interest rate outlook. The US stocks witnessed a relief rally and dented the haven demand for the Greenback after Powell ruled out the possibility of rate hikes while indicating that policymakers are still leaning toward eventual rate cuts this year.
As expected, the Fed held the Fed Funds Rate steady in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its May policy meeting. Powell, however, said that central bankers want “greater confidence” that inflation is falling toward 2%. “It is likely that gaining such greater confidence will take longer than previously expected. We are prepared to maintain the current target federal funds rate for as long as appropriate,” Powell added.
The probability of the first Fed rate cut, likely to be in September, rose to 53% from about 47% pre-Fed announcements. Gold price tends to benefit in a low interest-rate environment.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was also hit by yet another suspected intervention by the Japanese authorities overnight, which saw USD/JPY crash nearly 450 pips in a span of 45 minutes. Gold price, therefore, holds on to the recent gains but the further upside appears capped should the US Dollar recover further ground, tracking the turnaround in the USD/JPY pair from near 153.00 region.
Later in the day, the weekly US Jobless Claims and the preliminary Unit Labor Cost data for the first quarter will hold relevance ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Strength of $2,300 support is an encouraging sign for bulls Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price started the week under heavy bearish pressure and registered its largest one-day loss of the year on Monday. The pair managed to stage a rebound in the second half of the week but closed in negative territory.
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Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains above 1.0700 amid expectations of Fed refraining from further rate hikes
EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
GBP/USD gains traction above 1.2500, Fed keeps rates steady
GBP/USD gains traction near 1.2535 during the early Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the sharp decline of the US Dollar after the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged.
Japanese Yen bounces off daily low, keeps the red around mid-155.00s against USD
The Japanese Yen rallied on Wednesday amid speculations of another intervention by authorities. The momentum, however, runs out of steam on the back of the divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks. Traders now look to the second-tier US data for some impetus ahead of the NFP report on Friday.
Gold needs to reclaim $2,340 for a sustained recovery
Gold price is consolidating Wednesday’s rebound in Asian trading on Thursday, as buyers await more employment and wage inflation data from the United States for fresh trading impetus. Traders also digest the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's words delivered late Wednesday.
WTI drops to seven-week lows below $80.00 on surprise build crude inventories
WTI prices loses momentum near seven-week lows of $79.20 on Thursday. A surprise build in US crude stocks weighs on black gold prices. WTI prices edge lower amid signs of easing Middle East geopolitical tensions. The US employment reports on Friday will be closely watched.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
